Future of Islamic Banking - Sayyid Tahir

Islamic banking and financing has gained a foothold both nationally in Muslim
countries and internationally in the financial world. Regular degree programs are also
being offered at the university level in both the East and the West. Now Islamic
banking industry faces issues of a different sort. That is, how to (1) consolidate the
gains made so far and sustain itself, (2) ward against any meltdown and (3) grow.
These issues determine the scope for our discussion.
The topic involves some futurology. Its nature requires interactive dialogue. We
propose the following list of questions for deliberation:

1. Will Islamic banking survive or not?
2. What shape might the Islamic banking industry take in the future?
3. What, or what type of, challenges might Islamic banking face in the coming
years?
4. What changes might Islamic financing bring about in the way people live,
businesses work and governments run public affairs?
5. How might development of Islamic financing affect the disciplines of Fiqh,
Accounting, Business Administration (in particular, Finance and Marketing
and Business Management), Economics and Public Policy?

We make here some submissions for further dialogue. It is pertinent to mention that
there are some similarities between this topic and the one on Current Issues in
Islamic Banking. This is because present determines the future, and future
considerations influence the present. Notwithstanding this, however, the future
concerns merit their own discussion.

1. Survival of Islamic Banking & Finance

Survival of Islamic banking depends on the following: (1) its economic viability, (2) its
stability, (3) its response to challenges to its identity, and (4) confidence of
depositors and savers. We discuss these four things in turn.

1.1 Economic Viability:

Economic viability of Islamic banking/financing is not an issue for two reasons:
• Professor of Economics, International Institute of Islamic Economics, International Islamic University,
Islamabad.
This discussion paper is prepared for COURSE ON ISLAMIC BANKING AND FINANCE, TEHRAN, IRAN, 2-6 March 2003,
organized by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Islamic Research & Training Institute of the IDB, Jeddah.
Future of Islamic Banking 2
(1) Islamic banking is just another way of banking.
(2) Islamic banking offers a better financial architecture, on economic
grounds.
Let us take the case of a bank client (C) who actually needs to buy something for
which he does not have funds to meet the seller (S)’s demand for payment. Currently
a bank (B) comes in the picture as follows:
The prohibition of riba makes the loan option economically infeasible for the bank. It
can, however, still play a meaningful role and help the client to tide over his liquidity
problems as follows:
The above picture will remain by and large the same if the client needs something on
lease basis.1 However, if usage of funds involves several transactions at the client’s
end, Islamic bank can share its resources with the client under partnership
arrangements—modarabah or musharakah—to do the needful.
The above analysis implies that Islamic banks will always be able to address
financing concerns of their clients. And, in fact, they will have more than one distinct
option to do so.2 Note that financial tag for Islamic financial instruments need not be
an issue because numbers can always be worked out to show that cost of Islamic
financing remains the same as that associated with interest-based financing.
It is also noteworthy that Islamic financing implies direct linkage between financial
flows and real flows in the economy. That is, funds will flow from Islamic banks only
against real economic activity. Thus, investors will approach Islamic banks only
1 Of course, in that case lease agreement will replace sale agreement between the bank and the
client. And, if sub-leasing is involved, purchase agreement of the bank with supplier shall be
substituted by a lease agreement.
2 Interest-based banks use different variants of loan transaction. These instruments differ only in their
degree of complexity stemming from the nature of financing request.
B
Loan Cash Payment
Repayment of Loan The Thing
(Principal + interest)
Interest-based Solution: Bank as Lender
B C S
B
(4) Deferred Payment* (1) Cash Payment
(3) The Thing (2) The Thing
* Cash price + Bank’s margin
Islamic Solution: Bank as Trader
C B S
Future of Islamic Banking 3
when they have genuine needs. End in dichotomy between financing and the use of
funds will lead to integration of real and financial sectors in the economy. In this
sense, Islamic financial architecture will be superior to the existing interest-based
financing architecture.

1.2 Stability:

According to Dr. Mohsin Khan, in his 1985 article in IMF Working Papers, when there
is downswing in an interest-based economy depositors’ existing claims remain a
liability of the banking system. This forces the banks into debt management. That is,
creation of new and more costly debt against the banks—in the form of new deposits
and borrowings from other sources—in order to retire existing debt to the depositors.
This action reinforces the process of downswing, and hampers the pace of recovery
in the economy. As against this, Islamic banking has advantage that bank obligations
to depositors automatically adjust, both in downswing and recovery phases, due to
the principle of profit-and-loss sharing.
More recently, in an article on the web Dr Tariqullah Khan of the IDB has stated
the same point as follows. “A banking system would be unstable if it concentrates
asset risks on bank capital. Since Islamic banking principle is based on risk sharing
and it spreads risks between bank depositors and bank capital, it is inherently more
stable. If this inherent quality is coupled with prudential regulations and supervision
and with implementation of internationally acceptable standards of risk management,
transparency and corporate governance, Islamic banking can practically become an
ideal alternative to the traditional banking system in achieving equity, stability and
efficiency”.
It is also well-known in traditional finance literature that interest-based debt
finance is an important source of economic instability, as compared with equity
finance. Relevance of this point for our purpose needs no further comment.
Last but not the least, direct linkage between financing and application of funds
under Islamic banking will mean an end to credit or untied cash, as found in the
existing interest-based economies.3 Thus, an important cause of mismatch between
aggregate demand and aggregate supply in the economy will be removed. This will
mean less demand-pull inflation. On the other hand, linkage of financing to economic
activity will help in easing supply constraints in the economy. This will result in,
among other things, employment generation. These considerations lead us to
conclude that frequency, intensity and duration of business cycles will be less with
Islamic banking.
3 Note that there may be debt in an Islamic economy in lieu of transactions involving deferred settlements. But
there will be no credit, as commonly understood.
Future of Islamic Banking 4

1.3 Challenges to Identity:

Let us take the case of Murabahah financing, i.e., financing via sale on deferred
payment basis. A reference to the diagram on Islamic Solution: Bank as a Trader
in section 1.2 above, clarifies how bank enters into the transaction process as a
trader. That is, it comes in the picture between the seller and the bank client: it first
buys the thing and then sells the same to the client. A simple way to do so is as
follows:
The numerals in the diagram show the sequence of events in the transaction
process. It is possible to define a financial instrument such that (i) there is little or no
time lag between creation of bank’s obligations to the supplier and its claims against
the client and (ii) physical commitments on the bank’s part are negligible.
As against the above, at present most of the murabahah financing work as
follows:
1. There is a promise/agreement between a bank and its client. This binds the
client to purchase thing(s) in question from the bank, creates a financing
facility in the name of the client, and authorizes the client to directly purchase
from the suppliers (though at the behest of the bank).
2. The client makes necessary purchase(s), and payment advices are sent to
the bank that the bank honors.
3. The client directly takes delivery of the good(s) from the supplier.
4. Once the thing(s) is (are) with the client, a sale-purchase agreement is made
between the bank and the client as follows. The client offers to buy (what is
already with him) and the bank agrees to sell the same thing!
5. The client discharges his payment obligations to the bank.
The above process is materially no different from that associated with Supplier’s
Credit currently in vogue in interest-based banking. Thus, if murabahah financing
works as above, sooner or later questions may be raised about its claim to a
separate identity. Change in labels and terms are unlikely to be a lasting defense.
Bank
Client
Supplier
1. Application
6. Installments
3. Sale Agreement
2. Purchase Agreement
4. Payment settled
5. Delivery
Future of Islamic Banking 5
As per the existing approaches as understood by us, there is little difference
between hire-purchase practiced by Islamic banks and financial lease condemned by
the fuqaha as a transaction of riba. Similar points may be raised about some other
financial instruments adopted by Islamic banks. The line of distinction between
Islamic financing and interest-based financing must always be above reproach in
order to avoid identity crisis for Islamic banking.

1.4 Confidence of Depositors and Savers:

Dr. Tariqullah Khan recently raised this issue as follows. “A bank licensed as an
Islamic bank may be running on a very sound financial footing. However, if the
depositors came to know that the bank has violated its Shari’ah mandate, the
depositors will lose confidence and the finding will trigger deposit withdrawal and
probably collapse of the bank. By contagion effect this can lead to financial instability
threatening economic development”.
One may add that success begets envy and, hence, scrutiny. Caution is,
therefore, warranted against any thing that creates doubts about the Shari’ah
credentials of Islamic banks’ transactions, especially on the financing side.

2. Likely Shape of Islamic Banking & Finance in Future
2.1 Islamic Banks as Pure Financial Institutions:

Islamic banks will become pure financial institutions that fill financial gaps standing in
the way of real economic transactions at the grassroots level. The following
economic factors will lead to this development.
Practitioners of Islamic banking will recognize that efficiency and gains lie in
specialization. They will, therefore, delegate to third parties responsibility for field
operations in lieu of a financing transaction, of course, in return for a charge. In some
cases, such as taking physical possession of a thing in trade- or lease-based
financing, this third party may be the bank’s client himself. This is likely to happen
because economies of scales enjoyed by third-party specialized institutions will
reduce operational costs for the banks. In the end, one expects Islamic banks
institutions to touch the economic landscape only on the financial plane, i.e., become
pure financial institutions—while acting as economic agents.
Notwithstanding the above, regulators also need to recognize the following
danger. Islamic banks, as already seen, will provide financing by coming in the
picture as traders, lessors or partners. This factor along with their ability to muster
sizeable funds can have potentially damaging implications. For example, if there are
no checks on the scope of trading operations of Islamic banks, mega traders will
emerge as the expense of small traders and businesses. This monopoly problem
can be addressed through limiting the role of Islamic banks to financing matters only.
Future of Islamic Banking 6
That is, for example, they may be permitted to enter into a transaction as trader in
order to facilitate a sale-and-purchase transaction at the grassroots level, they
should not be allowed to buy and sell things for themselves.

2.2 Islamic Banks will primarily be Economic Institutions:

Islamic banking will be ethical banking for, among others, the following reasons:
(1) Islamic banks will stay away from financing Shari’ah-proscribed
activities—producing alcohol or financing speculative activities, for
example.
(2) There will be transparency in their transactions with the clients—
depositors as well as fund-seekers—due to compliance with the
Shari’ah Ahkam on gharar.
Islamic banks will also contribute to social welfare of the economy to the extent
Ahkam on zakah would apply to them. But beyond this, generally they shall be pure
economic institutions established by their owners for profit earning. Of course,
individually some Islamic banks may specialize in participatory modes of financing
modes due to some religious convictions of their owners. But there is no Shari’ah
compulsion for this. Islam allows banks to exploit all halal ways to their advantage, of
course, subject to willing consent of the all concerned in a given transaction.
As for Islamic banks doing charity, the thinking needs to be set straight. A bank’s
money (deposits plus bank capital) belongs to its depositors and shareholders. Prior
permission of the ultimate owners is a must for any charity.4 The same principle
applies to profits earned through financing operations in which capital stakes of
depositors, and may be the bank’s shareholders, are involved. Technically speaking,
bank management may exercise some discretion for charity with prior permission of
the shareholders and the depositors. But getting such a mandate is practically not
possible because both the group of bank shareholders and that of bank depositors
continuously keep on changing.

2.3 Standardization of Islamic Financial Products:

Standardization is necessary, and it is bound to happen. This is because the world is
a global village. Costumers’ consciousness and competition among Islamic banks
will lead to standardization of Islamic financial products. Ultimately, barring
exceptional circumstances when large and long-term fund commitments and/or a lot
of financial engineering is involved, only price competition will rule in the Islamic
banking industry.
In passing, one may note that in the long run standardization in the financial
instruments will require consensus of fundamental Shari’ah principles for designing
4 This automatically happens in the case of charity by an individual out of his personal wealth.
Future of Islamic Banking 7
financial contracts. Unless this happens, Islamic banking may become a clash of
dogmas.

2.4 Structure of Islamic Finance Industry:

Islamic finance industry is likely to be divided into (1) normal banking institutions, (2)
development finance institutions, (3) microfinance institutions, (4) mutual funds and
(5) life insurance companies and their other equivalents.
Development finance institutions will specialize in financing based on divisible
and tradable financial instruments to address sizable financing needs with long
maturity periods.
Microfinance institutions shall emerge not only for economic considerations but
also as part to government strategy to exploit the potential of micro-financing for
poverty alleviation.
There will always be return-conscious depositors who want maximum flexibility in
investment and withdrawal of funds. Accounting and, may be, other costs
considerations at the level of the normal banks will give rise to institutions like mutual
funds or unit trusts. The quest for maximum responsiveness to their clients will force
these institutions to operate only in the secondary markets, such as Islamic stock
market (for Islamic shares) and Islamic money market (for divisible and tradable
Shari’ah-compliant financial instruments).
Life insurance companies and their other equivalents, such as Employees
Provident Funds and Private Pension Plans, are likely to emerge on the Islamic
financial scene in order to provide avenues for long-term capital accumulation to the
people. The existing Islamic Takaful model is expected to be working model for
these financial institutions. It is expected that Shari’ah considerations will force
development of separate institutions for other forms of insurance. For example, fire
insurance companies may also be required to take remedial measures for avoiding
the occurrence of fire. Accident insurance scene may be characterized by separate
Aaqila ( ÚÇÞáÉ ) for car, bus and truck insurance. And, so on.
3. Future Challenges for Islamic Banking & Finance

Some of these challenges are noted below.

3.1 Financial Innovation in Critical Areas:

Progress of Islamic banking will depend on its ability to innovate in the following
areas:
• Financial instruments yielding stable income flows for orphans, widows,
pensioners and other weaker segments of the society
• Financial instruments for meeting government’s financing needs
• Cover or security for financing, in particular Shari’ah-compliant alternatives for
penalty on payment defaults
Future of Islamic Banking 8
• Formulas for pricing of Islamic financial products

3.2 Competition:

Islamic banks should be ready to brace not only intra-industry competition but also
inter-industry competition from interest-based banks. The latter are already offering
Islamic financial products. The competition is likely to grow.

3.3 Misuse of Islamic Banking

Unless there are effective checks and monitoring, vested interests may use Islamic
banking to bypass the Ahkam on riba. For example, in the existing murabahah
financing banks do not directly come into the picture as buyers from the would-be
suppliers. This gives dishonest fund-seekers a window for getting credit from the
bank through fictitious purchases. Moreover, without effective checks and monitoring,
some bankers under financial pressures may be tempted to provide funds through
dummy transactions. For example, a person might get $1000 from a bank by the
bank first buying a bread—or something dirt cheap, not worth $ 1000—from the
client’s close relative and then selling the same to the client at a higher price.

4. Effect of Islamic Banking on Economy and Economic Life

The following effects are anticipated:
• The real and financial sectors in the economy will be better integrated, as
compared to what one finds in interest-based economies.
• Both what the governments do and the way in which they work, will change.
This will mainly stem from the fact that without tax revenues, governments
may address only those needs for which an economic transaction—other than
pure loan transaction—can be defined between the government and the
financiers. Economic considerations will in the long run lead to development
of “Fiqh for Government” that would regulate economic activity at the
government level.5
• Inter-bank money market and central banking will take new form. New matrix
of Shari’ah-compliant divisible and tradable financial instruments and the
Shari’ah parameters for contracts will give shape to this development.6
While the above happens, the regulators will also have to ensure
compliance with Basel requirements for international acceptability of Islamic
banking. In cases of no conflict between the Shari’ah parameters and the Basel requirements, there would be no problem. However, where conflict arises, there will be need (1) to design Shari’ah-compatible ways for
compliance with the Basel requirements and (2) to sell the same to the
international regulators.
• Accounting and financial management may undergo major changes. This
would happen because Islam has different position on ownership, rules for
transactions and the financial instruments.
• Islamic banking will lead to better business ethics because banks will
entertain only economically viable financing requests. Note that the said
transformation shall take place even without prior moral uplift of the society for
Islamic banking. Careful design of Islamic financial instruments will
discourage unscrupulous behavior by fund-seekers.

5. Effect of Islamic Banking on Various Disciplines

Fiqh: A change is already taking place. Instead of thinking within the narrow
domains of Hanafi, Maliki, Shafie, Hanbali and Ja’fari fiqhi schools,
contemporary fuqaha are joining hands and looking for common ground that
best suits contemporary needs.
OIC Fiqh Academy and AAOIFI provide formal international platforms.
Individual Islamic banks have either international representation on their
Shari’ah Boards or they are open to international influences.
Accounting, Financial Management, Marketing and Bank Management:
When full significance of the Shari’ah is recognized, these areas will change.
The impetus will come from, among other factors, Islamic concept of “rights”
(based on Islamic view of ownership) and permissible forms of transactions.
Economics: New economics will emerge for the new economic setup. Changes will
be more noticeable in the areas of macro and monetary economics.
Public Policy: A paradigm shift will take place due to changes in what
governments may do and the ways in which they would work.

6. Some Other Relevant Points

6.1 With Islamic banking gaining ground, new challenges are already emerging for
redrafting the rules for international trade and accommodating Shari’ahcompliant
foreign trade financing. A good deal of work has been done, but a lot
more is needed.
If Islamic financing is adopted at the state level, inter-governmental financial
flows will change, in both form and size.
6.2 Forces of the status quo will always resist change. Hence, every now and then
issues would be raised about what riba is or what it is not.
Future of Islamic Banking 10
6.3 Government finances will remain a problem in the way of Islamic banking until
sufficient new financing tools are developed and a consensus develops on the
economic and social role of government.
6.4 While the thrust of the present efforts in Islamic banking is on the financing side,
matters related to liability side of Islamic banks will become an issue in future.
The way in which Islamic banks look after interests of various groups of
depositors and what they actually do, both are likely to become an issue.

7 CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS:

“Highly ethical, well-regulated and beneficial Islamic financial architecture is possible.
Indeed, working in this field with more transparency, with effective corporate
governance and with better interaction with relevant international, regional and
national institutions, will definitely help all [those] who want to contribute to the
welfare of their community as well as to the welfare of the world as a whole.8